One of the biggest strategic shifts resulting from the war in Ukraine has been Europe’s increased role on the international stage, particularly in security and defense issues. As the United States shifts focus to the Indo-Pacific, the war in Ukraine winds down, and the future of Trans-Atlantic relations face uncertainty, Europe is poised to take on a greater deterrence role in the region. Europe's evolving role in deterrence has numerous implications for defense policy and security studies. First, it demonstrates the increasingly multi-player nature of strategic stability, traditionally conceptualized as a two-party great power nuclear balance. Second, it shows the importance of regional issues on the wider geopolitical landscape. Regional stabilities have implications for strategic stability. And finally, European actors could play a significant role in post-war efforts at arms control, given their increased defense spending, expansion of conventional capabilities, and ability to influence decision-making in Moscow. In short, Europe could make or break future strategic arms control efforts. 

      This talk will present findings from a year-long study commissioned by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth, and Development Office into prospects for arms control after the war in Ukraine. The study set out to understand what interest Russia might have in arms control, sources of leverage to incentivize Russia to participate in arms control, and options for strategic arms control after the war. It used an alternative futures methodology with four potential scenarios and two black swans through 2027, and included government, non-government, and next generation experts in the scenario discussions. The presentation will conclude with a series of recommendations for U.S.-Russia, U.S.-Russia-China, and multilateral arms control, to include France and the United Kingdom. Ultimately, it concludes that the best options for incentivizing arms control with Russia are nuclear and conventional buildups on both sides of the Atlantic, leveraging third parties to incentivize Moscow to participate in arms control, and linking arms control to wider security issues in the region.